Thursday, 15 October 2015

Looking forward to Euro 2016

As you may know, the group stage for Euro 2016 qualification is now over and we know the first twenty teams to qualify. This is a good time to look forward at next summer's competition and comment on how the qualification has gone for most teams. The majority of top teams have qualified except for The Netherlands who have famously missed out for the first time since 1984 and now due to the increase of teams, we will see a couple making their debuts in a major competition and their debut in the European Championships.

Group A of qualification saw the Czech Republic, Iceland and Turkey, as the best 3rd place team, make it to France next year. Although none of the teams have world class squads, they will all be difficult to beat as they all got a minimum of 4 points against the Dutch. They all do have some recognizable faces to look out for as Barcelona's Arda Turan captains the Turks, Petr Cech will be in goal for the Czechs and Swansea's Gylfi Sigurdsson is Iceland's talisman and top scorer in qualifying. All of them will be going into the tournament to enjoy it rather than to win it but any of these teams could get to the quarters if luck is on their side.

Belgium and Wales qualified through Group B and both of them should be going to France to try and test themselves against the best in Europe. Their squads are currently seen as the golden generations  and they are both in the top 10 of FIFA's world rankings as of the start of October 2015. Belgium ranked 3rd in the world and Wales are in 8th. Belgium have a long list of world class players and Premier League representatives at their disposal with a potential spine of their team consisting of Courtois, Kompany, De Bruyne and Eden Hazard. They could go all the way in France next summer as they reached the quarter finals in Brazil last year despite not really impressing. Belgium just need to copy Wales' attitude towards squad unity instead of being a team of great individuals. Moving on to Wales' impressive qualifying campaign, we can see that they are following their motto, "Together Stronger", with every player playing their part for the team, no matter if it is the world's most expensive player or somebody playing in the Championship. They do what they have to do for the good of the team. They have a few great players with the likes of Bale, Ramsey and Williams and combined with the attitude and eagerness of the squad as a whole, they shouldn't be afraid of any team as on their day, they can match anybody. They did so in the qualifiers by beating Belgium at home and holding their own in a 0-0 draw away to the 3rd ranked best team in the world. This will be Wales' first ever European Championships and their first major tournament since the 1958 FIFA World Cup so it should be one to remember for players and fans.

The current European champions, Spain, qualified without much trouble with nine wins out of ten and only conceding 3 goals in the process. They will be going into the competition to try and defend their title as best in Europe after a disappointing defense of their world title last year. With something to prove and a squad full of world class players, Spain should be one of the favourites to win the entire competition. With six players who started the 2010 World Cup final win in a good position to get a call up for the Euros next year, the squad still clearly has a very experienced and successful spine. The only negative would be that Spain won multiple qualifying games by only a goal to nil and not in a completely impressive way but that doesn't really matter because a win is a win and their World Cup win saw them win multiple games, including the final 1-0. Slovakia will join Spain after finishing as runner up of Group C. Slovakia beat the Ukraine to the second qualifying spot and in the process they pulled off a big shock by beating Spain 2-1. With the capability of pulling off a shock result and with Napoli's Marek Hamsik as their leading goalscorer in qualification, they should be a tough test for anybody.

World champions, Germany, seemed to find qualifying a little bit harder then they probably should have as they only confirmed their place in France after the final game. They narrowly beat Scotland 2-1 and 3-2, only got one point from two games against the Republic of Ireland and lost 2-0 away in Warsaw. Despite a less than impressive qualification, Germany still finished as group winners and should still be confident of doing well next summer. Apart from Lahm and Klose, Germany have kept most of their World Cup winning squad together and should be able to show why they are ranked as the 2nd best team in the world in France next year. Poland finished second in Group D behind Germany after a successful qualification campaign that saw them lose only one game. They go into the European Championships with the joint record top scorer in a Euro qualifying campaign, Lewandowski, after he scored 13 goals in the qualifiers. If Lewandowski keeps his current form, Poland should be able to get to the quarter finals at least and will be a team to avoid as their only defeat in qualification was against the reigning champions of the world.

England comfortably qualified as winners of Group E with a 100% record as they won all 10 games. Things will be a lot tougher next summer with more difficult opponents but things look very positive for England as they have a good squad and they appear to be doing everything they can to put the disaster of the World Cup behind them. They will be hoping to get to at least the quarter finals to prove that they can compete with the best in Europe again. Switzerland follow England in qualifying from Group E and they too didn't have much trouble. Before the qualifying began, it was clear that England and Switzerland were the best two teams in the group with the their opponents being average at best. The Swiss won seven out of ten games but the biggest downside to their qualifiers is that against England, they didn't put up much of a fight. With this in mind, I don't think that Switzerland will do much in France next summer, instead, they will be lucky to get out of the group stage.

Northern Ireland and Romania both qualified from Group F. It is Northern Ireland's debut in a European Championships and I think it will be an incredible journey for everybody involved, but they won't be much of a threat and they will likely be the whipping boys of their group like the Republic of Ireland were in Euro 2012. I think Romania will share the fate of the Irish as they will be there to make up the numbers instead of being serious contenders. Despite this, both of their qualifying campaigns have been impressive as Northern Ireland won the group with six wins and only one loss. Kyle Lafferty was also the group's top scorer as the Northern Irish outscored all of Group F opponents. Romania managed to not lose a single game as they won five and drew five and although Northern Ireland were the group's best attacking side, Romania were the best defensive team as they only conceded 2 goals. Therefore, statistically, Romania are the best defensive side in any qualifying group. England and Spain were the next best with 3 goals conceded.

Group G saw Austria and Russia qualify but in two different ways. Austria qualified quite comfortably with nine wins and a draw and getting some impressive results such as a 4-1 win away in Sweden and home and away wins against Russia. With 28 points out of a possible 30, it is clear that Austria have the second best points total in qualifying behind England's 30 points. Russia qualified 2 points ahead of Sweden and they had the fortune of getting 3 points handed to them after their away tie in Montenegro was abandoned due to crowd trouble. Austria should be excited about next summer as they have a great opportunity to try and get some good results. There is no reason why they can't get to the quarter finals. Russia, however, will not do as well and I can see them struggling to get out of their group.

Italy and Croatia both qualified from Group H and they both managed to do so without losing many games. The Italians didn't lose a single game and the Croatians only lost one in their qualification. This Italian side is really not the same standard as the 2006 World Cup winning side or even their Euro 2012 runners up side. They still have players such as Buffon, Chiellini and Pirlo but the Italians seem to be unable to replace the ageing stars with players of equal quality. Italy should still do quite well next summer but it would be a miracle if they reached the final like last time. Croatia are also not the same side that was considered to be one of the best in Europe four years ago but they still have players like Modric, Rakitic, Kovacic and Mandzukic. Any team with players of that quality should be able to be a match for anybody in Europe but I don't think  it won't be enough to get them past the round of sixteen.

Portugal and Albania qualified from Group I and it seemed to be easy for Portugal as they won seven out of their eight qualifying games however, they narrowly won all of those games by a single goal with 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 wins. They do have the best European player in Ronaldo and this is realistically, his best chance to win silverware with Portugal as the main Portuguese squad is ageing and the FIFA World Cup in three years seems to be just a step too far. Ronaldo won his country 9 points with his goals in qualifying and it is essential that he remains fit for the Euros. With Ronaldo, Portugal should get out of the group and could get as far as the semi finals but without him, I can see them falling at the first hurdle like they did at the world cup in Brazil. Albania will be joining Portugal in France next summer as they beat Denmark to the runners up spot and have qualified for their first major tournament in their history. Despite an impressive 1-0 win away to Portugal, Albania were not great in qualifying as they only just got through with inconsistent results and being handed the 3 points against Serbia after the game was abandoned due to violence. They shouldn't be much trouble to beat in next summer's Euros so they should fall in the groups but it is still an incredible accomplishment to qualify and they should be proud and try and enjoy it while it lasts.  

The hosts, France will be looking to establish themselves as one of the best teams in Europe after a quite inconsistent last five years in major tournaments. They will be going into the competition with high hopes as the last two major  tournaments to be held in France, the 1998 FIFA World Cup and the 1984 European Championships were both won by the hosts. The French squad is perfectly capable of winning the competition next summer as they have a good blend of youth and experience. The likes of Varane, Digne, Zouma, Pogba, Kondogbia, Griezmann, Martial and Lacazette will be mixed in with players who have more than 50 caps for France such as Lloris, Evra, Sagna, Valbuena and Benzema. The squad is in a great position with more players that I haven't mentioned playing for top Premier League, Ligue 1, La Liga and Bundesliga teams. The strength of the current squad can be seen through their fake qualification campaign as they won seven out of their ten centralised friendlies that they played against their Group I opponents so I think France should be a threat next summer and be confident of getting to the last four at least.

There are now four spaces left for teams in the play offs as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, Sweden, Hungary, Denmark, Republic of Ireland, Norway and Slovenia will fight for those limited remaining places so it will be interesting to see who will qualify. Any of these teams could make it but depending on who is drawn against who, I think the best teams that should qualify are Denmark, Ukraine, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland. As it is, I think this will be Ibrahimovic's last European Championships as he will be 38 going into the Euros in 2020 so it would be nice for him to have one last go, similar to Shevchenko during the 2012 Euros. The draw for the play offs will be on the 18th of October and there should be some great games to reach the championships next summer.    


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